Methodology — Research Approach, Sources, and Analytical Framework

Research Methodology

The Lobito Refinery intelligence platform employs a rigorous research methodology designed to produce accurate, timely, and actionable intelligence on the Lobito Refinery project and the broader Angolan downstream petroleum sector. Our methodology combines primary source analysis, secondary source synthesis, quantitative modeling, and expert judgment to deliver insights that serve the information needs of investors, policymakers, industry professionals, and researchers.

Source Hierarchy

Our research draws on a hierarchical source framework that prioritizes the most authoritative and direct sources of information:

Tier 1 — Official Project Documents: Environmental impact assessments, regulatory filings, construction permits, financial disclosures, and other official documents produced by the project consortium, the Angolan government, or regulatory authorities. These sources provide the most authoritative data on the projects parameters, status, and compliance.

Tier 2 — Government and Institutional Sources: Statements, reports, and data from the Angolan government (including MIREMPET, ANPG, IRDP, and the Ministry of Finance), international organizations (IMF, World Bank, AfDB), and industry associations (OPEC, IEA). These sources provide macroeconomic context, policy frameworks, and industry-level data.

Tier 3 — Industry and Market Data: Commodity price data, shipping data, refining margin benchmarks, and other market data from commercial data providers (Platts, Argus, Bloomberg, Reuters). These sources support our quantitative analysis of the projects economics and market positioning.

Tier 4 — Media and Expert Sources: Reporting from reputable international and Angolan media, analysis from independent research firms and consultancies, and insights from industry experts and professionals with direct knowledge of the project or the Angolan petroleum sector.

Analytical Framework

Our analysis is organized around several interconnected analytical frameworks: the project execution framework (tracking construction progress, schedule, quality, and safety against the project plan), the financial framework (monitoring financing mobilization, cost performance, and cash flow against the financial model), the market framework (assessing product demand, pricing, margins, and competitive dynamics), and the risk framework (identifying, assessing, and monitoring the political, technical, financial, and environmental risks facing the project).

Data Validation

All data published on the platform is subject to a validation process that includes cross-referencing against multiple independent sources, consistency checking against historical data and established relationships, reasonableness testing against industry benchmarks and comparable projects, and editorial review by subject-matter experts before publication.

Limitations and Disclaimers

Our research is subject to inherent limitations: some project data is not publicly available and must be estimated or inferred, forward-looking assessments involve uncertainty that cannot be fully quantified, and the projects evolving nature means that information published at one point may become outdated as circumstances change. We clearly distinguish between verified facts, estimates, projections, and opinions in our published content, and we promptly correct errors when they are identified.